SHORT ANSWER: All these crops can be profitable on shallow
soils. It should be recognized, however, that profitability depends more
on producers' experiences and abilities than normal balance sheet
statements.
EXPLANATION: Since profitability is affected by so many
different factors, it would be impossible to consider everything in a short
discussion. For brevity, the general assumptions listed below must be accepted
to compare profitability of these crops. Producers must then adjust the scenario
to fit their production practices.
-- Soil pH is 6 or above.
-- The level of phosphorus and potassium are at least 80%
sufficient and no lime, phosphorus, or potassium will be applied. (NOTE:
It is not recommended to plant any crop with less than 100% sufficiency
of major fertilizer nutrients.)
-- Annual land preparation costs are approximately equal. Land
preparation costs are higher for alfalfa than for the others crops in the
establishment year; however, when prorated on an annual basis alfalfa costs
may be somewhat lower than for annual
crops.
-- Herbicide and insecticide costs are approximately the same
for all crops. These costs are highly variable but, on average,
equivalent.
-- Rooting depth is at least 3
feet.
To compare profitability among crops, the remaining variables
are potential yield, value of the product, and harvest costs
for each crop. In Table 1 values of products are estimated on conservative
historical values, and harvest costs are estimated from published custom
charges (OSU Current Report 216). Yield estimations are primarily dependent
on rainfall, and for the sake of simplicity, we used average annual rainfall
totals of 25, 30, and 35 inches.
Realistically, a range of plus or minus 25% should be considered
for each of the values in Table 1. Data can be modified to better fit any
given circumstance. We modified the price of alfalfa hay for this purpose
to $70/ton, rather than the normal $80/ton because quality is expected to
be somewhat lower. Readers are cautioned to keep in mind the assumptions
discussed above and remember that there is no clear, objective method
for comparing yields that fully reflect an individual producer's ability
to manage any of these crops.
In each case, it is assumed that 75% of the rainfall will be
stored in the root zone. Each situation will differ greatly from producer
to producer. Producers are encouraged to calculate their own potential profits
for various crops.
Alfalfa appears to be the most profitable crop for western
Oklahoma where annual rainfall averages 25 to 30 inches, without considering
income from grazing or seed production. Cattle are available in most areas
to graze the late season production that may not be good enough to pay for
baling.
This scenario excludes deep or sub-irrigated soils and illustrates
that it is not essential to harvest 5 to 6 tons/A of alfalfa to make money.
A problem with this illustration is the fact that alfalfa requires much work
and "art." Inexperienced producers may not be able to bale their hay correctly;
however, the fact remains that good producers can probably make more profit
by increasing their use of shallow soils for alfalfa production. Most producers
can make 2 to 3 tons/A of hay from the first two cuttings each
year.
Table 1. Comparative "Profitability" of Alfalfa, Corn,
Wheat, Soybean, and Grain Sorghum Grown on Shallow Soils with Three
Rainfall Conditions. |
Crop |
Yield |
Price |
Harvest Cost ($/A) |
"Profit"* ($/A/year) |
25 inches = Average Annual Rainfall **
|
Alfalfa |
2 tons/A |
$70/ton |
50 |
90 |
Wheat |
25 bu/A |
$3.90/bu |
15 |
83 |
Gr. Sorghum |
15 cwt/A |
$4.50/cwt |
15 |
53 |
30 inches = Average Annual Rainfall
|
Alfalfa |
3.5 tons/A |
$70/ton |
60 |
185 |
Soybean |
30 bu/A |
$6.00/bu |
20 |
160 |
Gr. Sorghum |
25 cwt/A |
$4.50/cwt |
16 |
97 |
Corn |
35 bu/A |
$3.40.bu |
23 |
96 |
Wheat |
28 bu/A |
$3.90/bu |
16 |
93 |
35 inches = Average Annual Rainfall
|
Alfalfa |
4.2 tons/A |
$70/ton |
75 |
219 |
Soybean |
35 bu/A |
$6.00/bu |
25 |
208 |
Corn |
60 bu/A |
$3.40/bu |
23 |
181 |
Gr. Sorghum |
35 cwt/A |
$4.50/cwt |
18 |
140 |
Wheat |
30 bu/A |
$3.90/bu |
17 |
100 |
* "Profit" = income (yield X price) - harvest costs. Real profit depends
on individual producer's practices regarding costs of fertilization, pesticides,
establishment, etc.
** Rain-fed corn and soybean are not reliable with less than 30" average
annual precipitation. |